Delving Deep into the Crop Production Report
Todd E. Gleason
USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service is responsible for keeping track of the number of bushels of corn and soybeans in the United States. Those numbers are estimated in the Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports. The agency works in concert with the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). The Board reports the supply and demand tables for commodities (WASDE).
The September WASDE (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate) figures dropped the 2012/2013 ending stocks for corn. USDA NASS Director of the Statistics Division Joe Prusacki says the change is in anticipation of what his agency will report out in the September Grain Stocks report. It will be released September 30, 2013. If the change reflected in the September WAOB WASDE is not reflected in the Grain Stocks report, then the October WASDE figures will be updated again.
You may listen to our conversation with Joe Prusacki. Prusacki was our guest on the September 13, 2013 edition of Commodity Week.
One other note from our CW conversation with Prusacki. He mentioned this year, by the maturity stats, seems analogous to 2008 and 2009. We pulled the October Crop Production reports to see what the changes looked like in those two years for corn…
2008 OCTOBER CROP PRODUCTION REPORT
Corn production is forecast at 12.0 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 153.9 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from September and 2.8 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year.
2009 OCTOBER CROP PRODUCTION REPORT
Corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and 8 percent higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 164.2 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from September and 10.3 bushels above last year. If realized, this yield will be the highest on record and total production will be second only to the record set in 2007.